The Yankees have barely played a divisional series match against the Tampa Bay Rays, but Derek Jeter understands that the margin to make mistakes has already been considerably reduced.
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After New York's 1-0 loss in Game 1, the historic Yankees captain was blunt in analyzing what's coming: for him, the second match must be faced with a mandatory match mentality.
It is not an elimination game. A defeat would not officially end the Yankees season. But falling 0-2 in a best-of-five series, after losing the first two away games, would put New York in a situation where he would have to win three consecutive games to stay alive.
Derek Jeter doesn't want to see Yankees down 0-2
During the post-game 1 analysis on the Fox Sports broadcast, Jeter made his position on Monday's game clear.
“It is a game that has to be won”, was the essence of his message.
For Jeter, the Yankees need to face Game 2 with the urgency of a decisive match, especially considering the quality of the rival and how difficult it has been to win at Tropicana Field.
The logic is simple: returning to Yankee Stadium tied 1-1 keeps the series completely open. Going back down 0-2 would force New York to play with virtually no margin of error for the rest of the ALDS.
Cam Schlittler will have the responsibility to respond
Jeter also highlighted an element that raises expectations for New York: Cam Schlittler will be the starter of Game 2.
The right comes after an extraordinary season and a dominant performance against Boston during the Wild Card round.
Schlittler finished the regular season with a 14-6 mark, a 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts. In addition, he was particularly dominant as a visitor, where he registered a 1.16 ERA in 17 starts.
That performance makes the young right into one of the main reasons why the Yankees can still feel confident after losing the first encounter.
But the responsibility cannot fall exclusively on him.
Gerrit Cole allowed only one run in Game 1 and still finished on the losing side. If the offensive reproduces the same way, Schlittler could find himself in a similar situation.
Freddy Peralta will be the next obstacle
Tampa Bay will respond with Freddy Peralta.
The Rays announced right-hander for Game 2 after Drew Rasmussen's spectacular performance at the start of the series.
Peralta finished the season with irregular general numbers, but came on at the closing of the calendar. In his last six starts he finished 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA.
He was also particularly effective after arriving in Tampa Bay during the season, becoming another important piece of a rotation that is forcing the Yankees to execute practically every offensive opportunity.
Game 1 left an offense without answers
Jeter's warning has even more weight when he looks at how New York lost the first game.
Drew Rasmussen pitched eight blank innings, struck out 10 batters, and took a no-hit game to the eighth inning.
The Yankees finished with a single unstoppable throughout the match.
Austin Wells was the one who broke the no-hitter with a double down the right field line, but immediately tried to reach third base and ended up being eliminated.
The play closed the eighth inning and New York's best chance disappeared to put pressure on Tampa Bay.
Alex Rodríguez also pointed out the errors in the bases
Wells' play also generated criticism during the post-match analysis.
Alex Rodríguez considered that this type of error cannot only be analyzed as an isolated action in October.
His argument was that the habits built during the six months of the regular season end up appearing under the pressure of the playoffs.
The offensive was the main problem of Game 1, but the lack of execution at the bases made a difficult situation a completely wasted opportunity.
This kind of detail becomes more important when the score is 1-0 and the rival is practically not giving opportunities.
The Yankees have to quickly forget Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen already did his job.
New York can study what happened, review its turns, and understand why it was dominated, but it can't get to Game 2 yet thinking about Saturday's frustration.
Peralta represents a different challenge.
The Yankees need to work counts in greater depth, avoid chasing pitches outside the zone and get runners from the first innings.
The priority should be to force the Tampa Bay starter to work under pressure.
Against Rasmussen they could practically never do it.
A race shouldn't be enough to beat Yankees
The most frustrating aspect of Game 1 is that New York pitching did its part.
Gerrit Cole kept the Yankees in the game allowing only one run in five innings.
The bullpen also prevented Tampa Bay from expanding the difference.
In other words, the Rays didn't need a big offensive night to take advantage of the series.
Jonathan Aranda hit a solo home run in the third inning and that race ended up being enough.
For a team with aspirations to go far in October, losing when your pitching body only grants one run is a wasted opportunity.
Jeter knows perfectly the October pressure
Derek Jeter's opinion naturally has a special weight around the Yankees.
During his career he built a good part of his legacy precisely in postseason matches, where small details and the ability to respond under pressure end up defining complete seasons.
That is why his warning is not based on the fact that New York is officially on the verge of elimination.
It is based on understanding what it means to allow a team like Tampa Bay to take a two-game advantage in a series of only five.
The Rays finished as the best team in the American League during the regular season and got the local advantage. Giving them three chances to get a single victory would be to voluntarily stand against a wall.
The story doesn't favor the teams that lose the game 1 either.
The numbers show why take advantage from the beginning has so much value in this format.
In the best-of-five postseason series, the teams that have won Game 1 have ended up advancing most of the time.
When the local team takes that first victory under the 2-2-1 format, the historical advantage is also considerable.
None of that determines what will happen between Yankees and Rays, but explains why New York needs to prevent the situation from getting worse.
The Yankists: Game 2 has to be played with a sense of urgency
from the perspective of The Yankists, Jeter's approach makes sense.
It does not mean that a defeat automatically eliminates New York.
It means that the Yankees have to play as if it doesn't exist tomorrow.
Cam Schlittler is available.
The bullpen will have enough rest.
The offensive will have the opportunity to correct what happened against Rasmussen.
And they can still return to Yankee Stadium with the series fully open.
That must be the goal.
The problem would start if New York returns to the Bronx needing to win three consecutive games.
Now the pressure is on the offensive
Schlittler can offer a great opening.
The bullpen can control Tampa Bay again.
But the Yankees have to score.
Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia Jr., Spencer Jones, George Lombard Jr., Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells and the rest of the lineup have to produce more than they showed in the first game.
Aaron Judge's absence remains important, but can no longer be used as an explanation for every offensive problem.
This is the roster chosen to play the ALDS and these are the players who will have to find a way to win.
Jeter's message comes at the right time
The Yankees are not eliminated.
They are not desperate.
But they also don't have room to act as if Game 2 was just another game.
Losing would mean being 0-2 against the best team in the American League and having to win three consecutive games to advance.
Winning would mean returning to the Bronx 1-1, regaining momentum and turning the rest of the division series practically into a matchup to the best of three.
That is the true meaning of Derek Jeter's warning.
Monday does not officially end the season if things go wrong.
But for the Yankees, the mentality must be exactly what their former captain asked for: playing it as a game to win.