The Yankees return to the Bronx in the most delicate situation of their season.
After losing the first two games of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York is down 0-2 and needs to win three consecutive games to keep their dream of moving forward alive.
The margin of error disappeared.
One more defeat ends the season.
But being against the wall does not mean that the series is decided.
The Yankees have not resembled the team that for six months was among the best in the American League, but there are still important arguments to believe that they can respond.
Aaron Boone correctly summarized the scenario: Before thinking of winning three games, New York needs to win one.
The Yankees offense is much better than it has shown
The first two games against Tampa Bay have been especially frustrating because the New York offensive practically disappeared.
Drew Rasmussen completely dominated Game 1 and limited the Yankees to just one hit.
In Game 2 there were better turns and some opportunities, but again the shot that changed the game was missing again.
That does not mean that this is an offensive incapable of producing.
During the regular season, the Yankees finished second in all major leagues with 223 home runs.
They were also eighth with 572 walks, sixth with .409 slugging and finished tied for ninth place with 739 runs scored.
Those numbers describe an offensive with power, patience, and ability to produce.
And there is a much more recent antecedent.
In the Wild Card series against Boston, the Yankees scored 18 runs in only two games.
All that happened without Aaron Judge.
Judge will also not be available during this divisional series, so New York can't wait for his captain to show up to solve the problem.
Production will have to arrive from the group that is already available.
Ben Rice.
Cody Bellinger.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Luis Garcia Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
Spencer Jones.
Austin Wells.
and the rest of the lineup.
Offensive talent exists.
Now it has to appear when it matters most.
The defense cannot be defined for a single night either.
Game 2 left an image hard to ignore.
The Yankees made four mistakes and three of them came only in the first inning.
It was one of the team's worst defensive performances all season.
However, it does not correctly represent what this group did during the previous months.
New York finished third in the American league in defensive efficiency and was around the MLB average in advanced metrics like Outs Above Average and prevented races.
That doesn't make the Yankees the best major league defensive team.
But they are not usually the team we saw making four mistakes in Tampa.
The concern exists because the Rays are built precisely to exert that kind of pressure.
They put the ball into play.
the bases run.
They are looking for the additional out.
and force the opponent to complete each play.
That is why New York cannot give away additional outs.
If the Yankees want to start a comeback, the first thing is to rerun routine plays.
Max Fried and Carlos Rodón can completely change the series
Probably the most important reason to maintain hope is in the rotation.
The Yankees still have arms capable of controlling an elimination match.
Max Fried will have the ball in Game 3.
For many major league teams, Fried would be perfectly a game opener 1.
New York has the luxury of giving you a life or death match after using other important arms during the first matches.
If the Yankees manage to extend the series, Carlos Rodón is screened for Game 4.
And if New York manages to complete the way back to a decisive game 5 in Tampa, Cam Schlittler could be available again.
That means, even being down 0-2, the Yankees don't need to survive using makeshift pitchers.
They have openers capable of dominating.
There is also a favorable element in the confrontation.
Fried and Rodón are left-handed, and Tampa Bay has had major difficulties against left pitchers.
That combination can become one of New York's biggest advantages over the next two games.
Fried perfectly understands the situation.
There is no reason to save anything.
The next game may be the last.
That means Boone will have to handle it as a real elimination game from the first inning.
Returning to the Yankee Stadium can change the atmosphere
The first two games were played on a favorable setting for Tampa Bay.
Now the series changes city.
The Rays built much of their identity around their stadium, their dimensions and a style based on contact, speed and pressure.
The Yankees have different characteristics.
Its offensive depends much more on the power and the Yankee Stadium is designed to favor several of the profiles that exist within this lineup.
The short distance to the right field can transform elevations that in other stadiums end up being outs in hits capable of changing a game.
But the stadium will only be an advantage if New York offers reasons to the public to get involved.
A good first inning.
A great defensive play.
an early home run.
a dominant exit from Fried.
Any time you can turn on the Bronx.
And few atmospheres can become a greater pressure for the visitor than a Yankee Stadium fully involved in a postseason match.
This roster has experience in handling pressure
The situation is urgent.
No one can hide that.
But several of the players who will be on the ground have already experienced important scenarios during their careers.
Max Fried has extensive postseason experience.
Cody Bellinger has played numerous matches in October.
Paul Goldschmidt knows perfectly well the pressure of this scenario.
Trent Grisham and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have also gone through important playoff moments.
Aaron Boone has directed multiple postseason series with the Yankees.
That does not guarantee a comeback.
But it does reduce the chances that the moment is too big for the team.
The challenge is to use that experience correctly.
They cannot try to win the three necessary matches in a single night.
They can't hit desperately looking for a five-run home run.
They cannot play constantly thinking that a defeat ends the season.
The priority has to be to win each inning and reach the end of Game 3 with a chance to stay alive.
The Yankees must stop thinking about the 0-2
The story does not favor the teams that start a series to the best of five losing the first two games.
But the story doesn't play the next game either.
The Yankees don't need to come back a 0-2 on Wednesday.
They need to win game 3.
If they do, the series will be 2-1.
Then a Game 4 will appear at the Yankee Stadium with Carlos Rodón available.
And if they win that match, all the pressure changes sides.
Tampa Bay would go from having a 2-0 lead to playing a fifth game with the entire series at risk.
That scenario is still far away.
That's why Boone doesn't want his players to think of three consecutive victories.
First they have to get one.
The Yankists: The comeback starts with Max Fried
from the perspective of The Yankists, New York has legitimate reasons to believe, but there is no room for speeches anymore.
The answer has to happen on the ground.
The offensive is better than it has shown.
The defense too.
Opener pitching still has important weapons.
And the return to the Yankee Stadium should offer a much more favorable scenario.
But none of those reasons is good if the team makes four mistakes, wastes runners, or allows another rival starter to completely control the lineup.
Max Fried has to set the tone.
The defense has to play clean.
And the batters need to produce early to get rid of the pressure that has accompanied the team during the first two games.
No need to think of a game 5 yet.
You don't even need to think about Game 4.
The Yankees season is reduced to nine innings.
Win and continue.
lose and start the holidays.
So simple.
The Yankees are against the wall.
But they are not deleted yet.
And as long as there is one game left to play, the opportunity to change this series continues to exist.